WM Phoenix Open: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: TPC Scottsdale – Stadium Course

Par: 71

Yards: 7,268 yards

Course rotation season is over! We head from the golden coast over to Scottsdale, AZ to enjoy golf at, what has become, one of the loudest stops on tour. It’s in the name; this week we get stadium golf in a party atmosphere – THE PEOPLE’S OPEN!

Important to note this week, is that TPC Scottsdale sits at one of the highest elevations on tour, although it is not a course that sees elevation changes throughout the set-up. Non-penal rough, large greens, fast fairways, and firm greens set this track up to be a ball strikers paradise.

Historical strokes gained data shows us the following strategy, bomb it with the driver every chance you get, hit plenty of these large greens, and give yourself chances at birdie. I don’t think this tells the full story at TPC Scottsdale. With greens firming up as the week goes on, approach play is paramount. With players like Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Hideki Matsuyama having a great deal of success here, it seems like a ‘team no-putt’ week. Previous results show TPC Scottsdale to be a ball strikers golf course, where fairway rollouts can level the playing field, in terms of distance, but also put you into trouble with fairway bunkering and an awaiting desert.

Weather

The weather looks PERFECT this week! We have sunshine every single day and no rain in the forecast. This golf course should play as intended, firm and fast, highlighting ball striking and putting an added emphasis on distance control.

Off the Tee

This is a driver-heavy golf course that tells the story of being a ‘bomber’s paradise’. The argument can be made that it is, however, firm/fast fairways, along with altitude, provide shorter hitters with an opportunity to keep up. Being long isn’t always great here, as the roll outs can put you right into the fairway bunker, or worse, the desert. Long and straight will separate you from the pack and give you the most lofted irons into these firm greens.

I’m looking for someone that gains OTT on driver heavy golf courses and ball strikes well on desert/comp courses. By highlighting players that gain OTT on driver-heavy setups, we are naturally brining distance into our model, but not over-prioritizing it. I’m also looking to avoid wild misses OTT as penalties lurk for those that are chasing distance but not hitting it very well.

Key Stats

-          SG OTT: Driver heavy

-          DFEF: Distance from edge of fairway

Approach

The second aspect to an elite ball striker is someone who hits a lot of greens. You need someone who is sharp on approach this week, as the greens will be firm, and the scores will approach -20. With large, flat greens, hitting them will be the first step toward scoring.

The Stadium Course presents a straightforward mix of approach shots: who excels with their mid-irons? With the elevation, one can argue that distances will play a ½ club shorter than what is on the scorecard. I think that 150-175 is the key range this week. With a good sample size, that range should give us elite PW/9I/8I players who hit the ball with some loft and can take dead aim at pins.

Key Stats

-          SG APP

-          150-175: Proximity

Around the Green

Due to the large greens, around the green play is de-prioritized a bit this week. The around the green play that will occur this week will involve chipping off short grass, which is a skill not everyone possesses. There are runoff areas around these greens to catch stray approach shots, as well as bunkering.

I will be capturing around the green play in other areas, for example going for the green: BoB. That will help to highlight players who push approach shots up around the green and finish it off with birdie.

Key Stats

-          SG ARG: Short grass

Putting

Putting will take a backseat in my model this week due to the historical leaderboard at TPC Scottsdale and the emphasis on ball striking here. If you are a better putter but aren’t hitting greens, or the right spots on the green, you aren’t going to out-perform a worse putter that has many more chances and is closer to the hole.

The putting surface this week is Poa Trivialis so I could understand that being an input or a reason to separate some guys that are closely ranked

Key Stats

-          SGP: Poa Trivialis

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

Last year’s top 5 confirms much of what was written above: You need to be elite on approach to win and supplement that in 1 or 2 other areas. Around the green play doesn’t matter this week. You can get away with an average OTT game if your putter is red hot, but that can be hard to predict. An elite ball striker is the best recipe to compete here

Additional Thoughts

The WM Phoenix Open is an AWESOME event. Firm greens help to avoid what we saw in the final round at Pebble: a dart throwing contest. The stadium and raucous atmosphere make for good TV, and I will be considering players that have experience in these high intensity moments. A strong OTT game will set-up the rest of your game this week. A reliable driver and someone who can take advantage of easier holes is someone that will contend.

Key Stats

-          SG: TPC Scottsdale

-          GFG BoB

-          SG BS: L36

-          SG TTG: Comp Courses

o   TPC Sawgrass

o   TPC San Antonio

o   Pete Dye Stadium Course

o   TPC Twin Cities

o   TPC Summerlin