The Masters: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Augusta National Golf Club

Par: 72

Yards: 7,528

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to The Masters!

 Although nothing more needs to be said, I’m going to say a lot! The Masters, held at August National Golf Club is rooted in tradition; it is the only major to take place at the same course every year. The sights, sounds, and appointment television have become a piece of family tradition around the world.

The strategy to win here is known: elite OTT game (distance preferred), elite approach game (Masters experience mandatory), and a WORLD CLASS short game. I will dive more into the specifics throughout this article.

The strokes gained profile for Augusta National echoes my intro to this tournament: Elite OTT play is critical this week. If Augusta gets some rain, carry distance will be much more important, as the course is LONG. The fairways are mowed with the grain facing the tee shot, meaning balls can come to a stop quickly if not aided by the elevation changes.

Did I mention elevation changes? APP artistry is mandatory this week, but there will be very few flat lies on this property. A good approach player can be made to look quite silly coming into these greens.

These greens are DIABOLICAL. You’ll hear plenty of that this week from your other sources, but it can’t be overstated how difficult it is to chip into these greens and putt. Without prior experience, you will look quite silly.

Weather

The weather looks ideal this week, except for some rain in the forecast Monday. With Tuesday/Wednesday showing full sun, I’d expect the course to play as intended – FIRM and fast. I don’t believe wind and/or wave advantages will play a part this week. Each day looks similar, with variable winds in the morning, increasing to ~10MPH as the day goes on. I don’t expect weather to be a part of the storyline this week. 

There appears to be some rain in the forecast Friday, so we’ll want to keep an eye on that!

Off the Tee

Augusta is known to favor bombers. The fairways are wide, and misses are forgiven, as fairway bunkering isn’t lurking on every hole and the rough… well… isn’t rough. Make no mistake, the tee shots aren’t easy, but they emphasize elite shots. You cannot compete at August by taking less than driver OTT and trying to plot your way around. Put on your big boy pants, take driver out of the bag, and push the ball down as far as you can to make the next shot a bit easier.

Key Stats

-          SG OTT: Good/Very good fields

-          Driving Distance

-          Carry Distance

Approach

Approach play at The Masters is so unique. There aren’t many courses on tour that are going to provide this kind of test: mid-long irons off uneven lies into elevated targets. Every shot demands so much out of you – if you fall asleep at the wheel for one approach shot, you will pay the price. As shown below, you need to elite with your long irons this week. The wedge shots primarily come from lay ups on par 5s, which are the scoring holes, so we’ll focus on the demanding shots that put you into scoring position.

Missed greens can be a killer this week if you aren’t competent around very difficult greens. One recipe is to hit a bunch of greens. I don’t think an out of form APP player can come in here and compete, so we’ll want someone that is both a long-term APP specialist and someone who is in great form on APP.

Key Stats

-          175+ Proximity

-          SG APP: L16 rounds

-          SG APP: 1 year

Around the Green

If you like creativity around the greens, then you better have your TV on! In my opinion, the ARG play at Augusta is what makes it such a unique tournament. There are great scramblers and then there are ELITE scramblers. Great scramblers can look bad out here…

The greens are so undulating that the amount of touch needed around them is amazing. GIR rates are lower than tour average here, so a rock-solid ARG game is mandatory if you want to be shown on Sunday.

Key Stats

-          Scrambling

-          SG: SG Masters

-          SG ARG: L24

Putting

Plenty of ‘team no putt’ guys have won here in the past. The is likely due to the stringent TTG test that we will see this week. These greens are tough to putt on, as the approach shot can leave you in some unfavorable spots. The incredible undulation leads to almost 1 3-putt for every golfer in EVERY ROUND. That is unheard of…

Every inch further from the hole brings missed putts into play, which further highlights the ARG play, but also puts a TON of pressure on your putter. The putting test is much different here than other place, though, due to the SPEED of the greens and the undulations.

Key Stats

-          SG Putting: Fast Greens

Learnings from Last Year

Elite TTG play is mandatory if you even want a chance this week - Same can be said for ball striking. If you aren’t elite around the greens, you better be elite on them (see Aberg). I think the best recipe is to ball strike and scramble. Putting can be volatile, so you won’t see me prioritizing good putters this week – the test is too unique on tour.

Additional Thoughts

Folks, this is The Masters. If there is one tournament where a long shot doesn’t come in and sneak one, it is this one. We need someone who has come out here and has success, someone that is in form, someone that is ELITE OTT, and someone with winning pedigree. We need to score on the par 5s, hit long irons well, and scramble around these amazing greens.

Pour yourself an Azalea and enjoy The Masters!

Key Stats

-          SG: Strong field

-          Course History

-          Par 5 scoring

-          SG TTG: L24