The Genesis Invitational: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South)

Par: 72

Yards: 7,765

This week, we get 4 rounds on the famed South course at Torrey Pines. This course will be familiar viewing, as we just saw Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open where Harris English took the trophy at -8. He took it home by leaning on his approach play and holing countless big putts. He was also efficient with the short game. The historical strokes gained chart for Torrey Pines favors longer hitters and demands an all-around TTG game.

Torrey Pines is a BRUTE. It’s going to take a complete TTG game to compete for the title here. The recipe can vary, but you are mostly looking for someone who can crush the ball OTT, hit long, accurate irons, and scramble their way to birdies (par 5s) and pars around these small greens. Of course, putting well helps, especially on these west coast POA greens, but it’s going to be hard enough to get into scoring position, so I’m not going to lean heavily on putting splits this week.  

Weather

Torrey Pines is a flat, exposed property so wind can certainly play a factor here, as well as rain. If the long rough gets wet, it can be miserable trying to gouge approach shots out of it. The weather looks to be a part of the story this week. There is rain in the forecast across Wednesday and Thursday, which will make the course play long, but also make the rough gnarly. Winds are also forecasted over Thursday/Friday so we will have to monitor a potential wave advantage, although the condensed field may mitigate that.

Off the Tee

Historical strokes gained data shows that OTT success will be dependent on driving distance. Although I tend to agree with this, it doesn’t mean that more accurate players can’t contend - there are advantages to both. The most consistent recipe OTT is to push it down as far as possible. Missed fairways are inevitable at Torrey Pines so if you are 2-3 clubs closer than some of your competitors, it is easier to gouge your ball out of this rough with a lofted iron.

Key Stats

-          Total Driving: Difficult and very difficult scoring

-          Total Driving: L16 rounds

-          Driving distance

Approach

With four hard to reach par 5s, three 200+ par 3s, and seven 450+ par 4s, the name of the game this week will be long irons. That will be further emphasized if the course gets a good soak. Almost 60% of approach shots will be hit from 175+ this week. If a player is lacking long term consistency with their long irons, and isn’t flashing over their last 12 rounds, they will have a hard time breaking par in any of their rounds this week. A solid wedge player, if incredibly consistent, can contend here by scoring on the long par 5s, however. I’m looking to build a model that elevates guys with higher percentage chances to compete, so I won’t be looking at wedge play this week.

Key Stats

-          200+ Proximity

-          SG APP: Long and very long courses

Around the Green

Around the green play is tricky at Torrey pines for two reasons: the rough is gnarly and, due to small greens, we’ll see guys tested more often than your normal PGA tour stop. Around the green play is not only critical for bogey avoidance, but those long irons/woods on par 5s are going to settle around the green much more than they will on them. I need a guy that can get those birdie chances up and down as well as someone who can get themselves out of trouble with a savvy chip, flop, or pitch in clutch moments.

Key Stats

-          SG ARG: Difficult and very difficult scoring

-          SG ARG: L16 rounds

Putting

I view putting as a luxury this week - It is going to be difficult for most players to have birdie putts so the last thing I want to do is grab guys that gain strokes with their putters, only to never have a chance to do so. One call out that is important, we’ll be putting on Poa this week. Some guys have a tough time on Poa due to the bumpiness of the greens getting worse as the day goes on. These greens are BRUTAL to putt on and there will be no gimmes this week.

Key Stats

-          SG short game: POA

Learnings from The Farmers Insurance Open

It takes consistent TTG play at Torrey Pines. You don’t have to excel in every category, but you do need to do something great. The top 5 at Torrey earlier this year showed exceptional approach play, and either putt very well, or gained strokes around the green against the field. To gain strokes on approach here, your OTT play needs to flash, so I think that is a bit mis-leading.  

Additional Thoughts

I think this is a week where we need to monitor the weather. If we get heavy rain, total driving is going to be emphasized. Shorter drivers playing out of the rough simply won’t be able to compete. With the talent in this field, around the green play can’t be overlooked. Would -8 have won this Farmers with this field? I don’t think so. With this being the last California event of the year, I think it’s worth a look to see who plays well on the west coast, which will emphasize performance on, and around, the greens on Poa. 

Key Stats

-          SG: Torrey Pines

-          SG SG: West Coast

-          Bogey avoidance: Non-easy scoring