The PLAYERS: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South)

Par: 72

Yards: 7,352

Often called the 5th major of the year, this week we get 4 rounds at the visually striking TPC Sawgrass. This tournament always seems to deliver and elevate those who are playing great golf. Course history isn’t too sticky here, as the variability from year to year is erratic due to the amount of trouble waiting at the end of every shot.

TPC Sawgrass is a course where good shots are rewarded with plenty of scoring opportunities, but bad shots are punished severely. There are numerous hazards at the end of every shot this week: fairway bunkering, water OTT, greenside bunkering, and water around the greens – most notably so on the par 3 17th island green!

As shown above, distance is mitigated this week and the way to separate yourself is through accurate ballstriking. Don’t be fooled, the PLAYERS is an all around TTG test, which also includes small, slick greens. Whoever wins is going to be the best all-around player this week!

Weather

The weather can absolutely play a role at The PLAYERS, as seen in a number of previous years. This year we are looking at plenty of sunshine! Despite the clear skies, there is some wind in the forecast across the weekend – high teens and low 20s. Despite a potential scary weekend, Thursday/Friday looks to be the same, mitigating any wave advantage at this point. Each morning starts off with variable winds and they pick up toward 10mph each day.

The weather is something to keep an eye on over the next few days!

Off the Tee

TPC Sawgrass is a ‘less than driver’ course. Most, if not all, players will be hitting positional shots OTT, as placing the ball in the fairway is critical to be able to hit these small greens and have control over the golf ball. You need to hit fairways this week to score, but also to avoid blow up holes. Players will be aiming to specific sides of the fairway to setup their next shots – meaning small misses are OK, but they need to be in the right spots.

Key Stats

-          Ball striking: High water danger

-          SG OTT: Less than driver

-          Good drive %

Approach

There have been plenty of events lately that tested the players’ ability to hit their long irons. This week, the opposite will be tested. 60% of approach shots will be under 175 yards, with the 100-150 bucket holding the most weight. With the 12th smallest greens on tour, players will want to approach with a wedge from the fairway to be able to control spin and score. Proximity is critical this week, as greens are severely contoured and have mowed-down runoff areas to collect stray shots.

Key Stats

-          100-150 Proximity

-          SG APP: L36 rounds

-          SG APP: Small greens

Around the Green

Anytime you’re dealing with small greens that are going to run firm and fast, around the green play is going to be critical. Like what we saw at the Cognizant Classic, the event moving from May->March has led to overseed, meaning those tight Bermuda lies that are so tough to chip from aren’t an issue all the time. There will be plenty of scrambling going on, but I don’t think elite ARG play is critical to contend this week. With that being said, we need a competent scrambler!

Key Stats

-          Scrambling

Putting

Plenty of ‘team no putt’ guys have won here in the past. The is likely due to the stringent TTG test that we will see this week. These greens are tough to putt on, as the approach shot can leave you in some unfavorable spots. That can be remedied with better APP shots though! We’ll need someone competent this week on fast greens, but putting isn’t a critical component to my model.

Key Stats

-          SG Putting: Fast Greens

Learnings from Last Year

TTG and APP play reign king at TPC Sawgrass; Everyone in the T5 last year excelled in those two categories. SG Putting also shook out as a vital stat, but you always need to putt well to win a tournament. I think our formula is simple: Long-term APP specialist, accurate ball striker, and someone who has winning pedigree.

Additional Thoughts

Often referred to as the 5th major, The PLAYERS is going to be an elite tournament this week. Quite often, this tournament is won by an elite player, but there is harsh variability in who plays well from year-to-year. Because of that, I want to have some exposure down the board and build equity going into the weekend. Those that are in-form tend to play well here; this is not a place to find your game.

Key Stats

-          SG: Strong field

-          SG: Florida