The Farmers Insurance Open: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course - South (2 course rotation)

Par: 72

Yards: 7,765

This week, we will play 3 rounds on the famed South course at Torrey Pines, and 1 round on the North course, which plays MUCH easier than the South. Specifically, the par 5s are shorter and there are less BRUTAL holes on the North. It will be critical to score well on the North when each player plays it once. As far as handicapping a winner, we will be focusing on the South course, where strokes gained data is available:

Torrey Pines is a BRUTE. It’s going to take a complete TTG game to compete for the title here. The recipe can vary, but you are mostly looking for someone who can crush the ball OTT, hit long, accurate irons, and scramble their way to birdies (par 5s) and pars around these small greens. Of course, putting well helps, but I’m not going to prioritize putting in my model too much. For a putter to contend, they will need to play fantastic TTG game first.

Weather

Torrey Pines is a flat, exposed property so wind can certainly play a factor here, as well as rain. If the long rough gets wet, it can be miserable trying to gouge approach shots out of it. Luckily, we are looking at stable conditions this week, except for Saturday (final round), where we may see some rain and windier conditions. I won’t be including those conditions into my model thoughts, as you must earn your way to final round contention.

Off the Tee

Historical strokes gained data shows that OTT success will be dependent on driving distance. Although I tend to agree with this, it doesn’t mean that more accurate players can’t contend - there are advantages to both. The most consistent recipe OTT is to push it down as far as possible. Missed fairways are inevitable at Torrey Pines so if you are 2-3 clubs closer than some of your competitors, it is easier to gouge your ball out of this rough with a lofted iron.

Key Stats

-          SG OTT: Driver heavy

-          SG OTT: Difficult and very difficult scoring

-          Driving distance

Approach

I think SG APP can be mis-leading this week; It’s hard to gain strokes on APP when you are hitting from the rough. With that being said, the length of this course leads to long irons being hit much more than tour average. The shorter irons are being hit on par 5 approaches out of the rough. To me, you need a guy comfortable from 150-200 and then someone who can hit 200+ with consistency. Leave your wedge dependent players at home this week!

Key Stats

-          150-200 Proximity

-          200+ BoB

-          SG APP: Long and very long courses

Around the Green

Around the green play is tricky at Torrey pines for two reasons: the rough is gnarly and, due to small greens, we’ll see guys tested more often than your normal PGA tour stop. Around the green play is not only critical for bogey avoidance, but those long irons/woods on par 5s are going to settle around the green much more than they will on them. I need a guy that can get those birdie chances up and down as well as someone who can get themselves out of trouble with a savvy chip, flop, or pitch in clutch moments.

-          SG ARG: Difficult and very difficult scoring

-          ARG Proximity

Putting

I view putting as a luxury this week. It is going to be difficult for most players to have birdie putts this week, the last thing I want to do is grab guys that gain strokes with their putters, only to never have a chance to do so. One call out that is important, we’ll be putting on Poa this week. Some guys have a tough time on Poa due to the bumpiness of the greens getting worse as the day goes on. These greens are BRUTAL to putt on and there will be no gimmes this week.

Key Stats

-          SG short game: POA

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

It takes consistent TTG play at Torrey Pines. You don’t have to excel in every category, but you do need to do something great. We got a mixed bag from last year’s top 5, but they all played well ARG. What Pavon lacked ARG, he made up for on them. You’ll need a short game this week and you’ll need to pop OTT or on APP. The T5 tells the story well, either be accurate and pop on APP, or bomb it OTT and navigate ARG well.

Additional Thoughts

We should see a fair test of golf this week. If you are struggling with your ball striking coming into this week, I don’t think you find it at Torrey Pines - It helps to come into the Farmers in good form. We have limited events to measure form, so I want to offset that with a larger sample size on around the green play and overall performance in tough conditions. The wildcard here is the North course. You can allow yourself a few more bogeys throughout the week if you go LOW on the North. Overall, a bomber that hits longer irons well should translate to success on the north course. Baking in some Par 5 scoring metrics should further elevate those guys as well.

Key Stats

-          SG: Torrey Pines

-          Par 5 BoB

-          Bogey avoidance: Non-easy scoring