The American Express: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course (3 course rotation)

Par: 72

Yards: 7,226

The American Express can be a tough event to handicap, as strokes gained data is only available for the Pete Dye Stadium Course, which is played once by each player over the first 3 rounds and then played in the final round (after a cut). The other two courses are the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. La Quinta is one of the easiest courses on tour (Par 72 - 7,060 yard). Its main defense is small greens, so the recipe above fits nicely; approach specialists from short range should have no problem shooting mid/low 60s. The Nicklaus Tournament Course (Par 72 – 7,147 yards) plays easy as well. Long drivers can hit past and/or around any hazards and have short approaches into the main defense of the course, the greens. With Bermuda grass, around the green play can be tricky here.

Historical strokes gained data shows that this event is a bomb and gauge birdie-fest. None of the three courses present any challenges if drives find the rough, so the way to contend here is simple –aim for the flag with your wedges, and get your putter warmed up.

Weather

Weather conditions couldn’t be better this week. These easy courses/setups will play as intended, firm fairways and watered, receptive greens. There is barely a breath of wind in the forecast and no significant rain has fallen in the area. Buckle up for a course rotation without any defenses!

Off the Tee

Historical strokes gained data shows that OTT presents players with an opportunity to gain strokes on the field. This is likely due to the water hazards at the Pete Dye Stadium course, as there isn’t SG data at the other two courses. I don’t think OTT is going to matter much this week, particularly from a handicapping perspective. The firm fairways allow accurate drivers a similar opportunity to put balls into wedge range as the longer hitters. Distance surely doesn’t hurt this week, but it will play a small role in my model build. Let’s focus our attention on OTT metrics that translate to scoring opportunities.

Key Stats

-          Total Driving: Very Easy scoring conditions

-          SG BS: Very Easy scoring conditions

Approach

Approach play this week is critical. Whoever gives themselves the most putts within 20’ will have a chance of winning this week. There will be a lot of short wedges, plenty of forced layups in the 150-175 range, and a good mix of 200+ due to long Par 3s and Par 5s. My strategy will be simple this week; allow the SG APP numbers at easy scoring venues to bring players to the top of the model and then supplement that with 200+ proximity. This is due to the scoring on par 5s and surviving the par 3s. Remember, 50% of the rounds do not have SG data, so I don’t want to prioritize the 150 range because of the forced layups at the Pete Dye track. SG APP in birdie fests and 200+ proximity translates to scoring at all 3 courses.

Key Stats

-          SG APP: Birdie fest

-          200+ Proximity

-          Par 5 scoring

Around the Green

Greens are small this week, so there will be plenty of missed greens, but the easy pin locations are going to make up and downs much easier than a normal week on tour. This is due to the pro-am setup.

I am not prioritizing ARG this week. I need guys that are going to hit greens and score. Up and down pars are like a bogey this week so if you’re a guy that misses greens and gets it up and down, enjoy your week in California, but you won’t be on my card!

Putting

Putting is going to be the difference this week. The greens in the 3-course rotation are flat and will have accessible pins. 10-20’ putting is going to be easier than most weeks and the winner will get HOT in that range. The small greens will further elevate a good putter, as these greens have the fewest 3-putts on tour. If you are hitting greens this week, you’ll have makeable putts on every hole. Especially in the placement market this week, we need a reliable long-term putter and someone who can get scorching hot.

Key Stats

-          SG Putting: Easy greens

-          10-15’

-          15-20’

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

Hit greens and make putts! This recipe leads to a volatile leaderboard, and it can be tough to predict who is going to be able to go that low for four days. Remember, SG data is only available at the Pete Dye course, so we can’t take these numbers as gospel. ARG can be more important at that track, as the forced layups lead to more missed greens, hence more ARG play. To earn the right to play the Pete Dye track twice, you’ll need to approach very well and putt very well. TTG play will allow elite players to contend, but the spike putting will allow long shots to win. We can’t take too much from this data…

Additional Thoughts

This is a tough week for handicapping. We have a pro-am setup birdie fest. That leads to volatile scoring that is dependent on how hot you can get your putter. Long shots excel here and it’s a losing strategy to build out a heavy unit outright card. We’ll be taking a different approach to this event; getting a small piece of long shots who could win and then doing well in the placement/matchup market to return a positive card.

I think desert golf and Pete Dye scoring should carry some weight this week, along with event history. As Jon Rahm famously said, “Piece of s***, f***ing setup, putting-contest week.” That’s how folks will feel that dump units into favorites this week!

Key Stats

-          SG TTG: Desert golf

-          SG TTG: Pete Dye