Sony Open: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Waialae CC

Par: 70

Yards: 7,044

Historical strokes gained data shows that this course demands a total driver; distance and accuracy matter this week. There is a great mix of holes, some requiring distance for an advantage and some requiring accuracy for an advantage. The ultimate goal here is to set up your approach shot. Although SG APP doesn’t correlate to total strokes gained as much as other buckets, this is a second shot golf course. You give yourself the best chance to gain strokes putting if your drive is to the right side of the hole and your approach is to the right spot on the green. SG Putting is where the separation occurs at this event, which is typical of easier courses.

Weather

Waialae CC is, mostly, a few hundred yards inland, so we won’t get the consistent coastal winds that we had last week at The Sentry. However, wind has played a part in this event over the years. This week’s forecast is showing a chance of rain for a few days and prevalent winds across Thursday – Sunday. Nothing to be too worried about, but 10-15mph winds will be a factor.

Off the Tee

There seems to be a thought that hitting the fairway is of upmost importance this week. I don’t really agree with that. If you are on the correct side of the hole, the rough isn’t a deterrent to good scoring. Hitting the long ball isn’t a consistent strategy this week. Like last week, there will be rollouts on some holes that will level the playing ground. If you are long and inaccurate, you will be worse off than someone who is short and accurate. I will be looking for someone who excels at good driving, which is anytime a player hits a fairway OR anytime a player finds a GIR after hitting their tee shot in the rough. This will elevate guys that are accurate and hit it to the right spot, even when they miss a fairway.

Key Stats

-          Good Drive %

-          Ballstriking: Very short / short courses

Approach

Approach play will be opposite of last week; wedges will be hit sparingly, and players will focus their attention on the middle of the bag, with 150-200 being the key approach range this week. The chart below tells the story well…

There are only two par 5s to contend with this week, so while scoring will be critical on those, it isn’t where a player will be hitting most of the approaches from. I will look to isolate players hit mid-irons well this week. To give themselves the most chances at making putts, players will want to hit greens at a high percentage this week.

Key Stats

-          APP Proximity: 150-200

-          SG APP: Easy courses

-          GIR

Around the Green

ARG play will be de-prioritized this week. Players will miss greens, but the up and down rate at Waialae is much better than Tour average. To say it differently, it’s not difficult to save par when you miss a green in the right spot. I think course history and, less so, course comp history is more important than around the green play this week

Key Stats

-          SG TTG: Course Comp

Putting

This is where a player will separate from the field this week. The above-mentioned game plan will set player’s up to make putts. The question will be, who can make the most? For the second week in a row, we’ll be putting on Bermuda grass, although this week the greens will be a touch faster than those at The Sentry. Overall, however, greens are still slower than tour average.

Key Stats

-          SG Putting: Bermuda Grass

-          SG Total: Waialae CC

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

Last year’s top 5 shows us an interesting recipe for success; Elite TTG play, bolstered by OTT play, and a rock-solid short game. SG APP wasn’t a big driver of success, but I do think missing in the right spots is something that stats don’t show. The Sony Open is a very predictive course and guys that hit it to the right side of the fairway/hole OTT and leave their approaches below the hole are going to have the most success. TTG play governs everything except putting and when someone is solid across all categories (missing in the right spots) they leave themselves the best chances at making putts.

Additional Thoughts

This is a week where course history / comp course history matters. The season is too young to focus on recent play, but looking to those that competed in The Sentry should give an advantage. I will be looking for course specialists and hope that our guys come out and play

their game. As with all easy scoring courses, it will come down to who brings their putter!

Key Stats

-          SG TTG: Short Courses

-          SG: SG Easy Scoring

-          The Sentry: SG TTG and Putting