The Sentry: PGA Tour Betting Preview

The Sentry

Tournament Details

Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua

Par: 73

Yards: 7,449

Historical strokes gained data shows that this course doesn’t demand an elite OTT game, but it does favor distance over accuracy. With the number of short wedges in, it’s not a huge surprise that APP correlation isn’t the strongest. In this elite field, APP will matter but it will be hard to separate from the pack with just that aspect of the game. ARG and Putting correlate the most with overall strokes gained and I detail why that is below…

Weather

Wind can play a factor at Kapalua, as evidenced by Justin Thomas’ win at -14 in the 2020 edition. Compare that against Cam Smith (-34 in 2022) and Chris Kirk (-29 last year) and you can see that wind is the main defense that the Plantation Course has against an elite field of golfers.

This week’s weather

The weather looks fairly calm for tournament week. The winds are up to the usual from Monday-Thursday but die down significantly over the weekend. The first round will be played under normal Hawaii conditions (10-20mph) and then winds fall under 10mph from Fri-Sun. With time to go until the weekend, one can only assume the winds will kick up to their normal speeds. Overall, a normal weather week in Hawaii, with the potential for calm, scoring conditions over the weekend.

Off the Tee

Fairways here are wide and hazards are absent. Rollouts will be plentiful, but I am favoring someone who can hit the long ball - accuracy, to me, doesn’t matter this week. Although, OTT doesn’t translate into overall SG for the tournament, when you couple OTT and APP together (ballstriking), you start to see some trends from previous years. Your best way to set up an APP shot, especially with some gusty winds, is to put the ball far out into the fairway and get the most lofted club you have into your hand.

Key Stats

-          SG OTT: Birdie Fest

-          Driving Distance

Approach

The approach chart below shows the uniqueness of this golf course. We’ll see a lot of wedge shots and a lot of long irons: 2/3 Par 3s are 200+ and there are 4 par 5s. So how do we want to handicap approach play this week? I am looking for someone that can stuff a wedge; There will be a lot of wedge shots this week and they need to translate into birdies at a high clip! A lower tier stat for me this week will be hitting greens from 200+. I’ll likely leverage some around the green play here to prioritize a guy that can get it up and down for birdie instead of trying to create a perfect profile for someone to hit every green.

Key Stats

-          Proximity 50-125

-          SG APP: Moderate wind (10-18mph)

-          GIR 200+

Around the Green

With massive greens, it can be easy to discount around the green play this week – we will not! When you are approaching the green from 200/250+ as often as you are here, missing greens (often UNDER regulation) will be common. I need a guy to consistently get these up and down, especially for birdie on par 5s and drivable par 4s.

Key Stats

-          SG ARG: Birdie Fest

-          ARG Proximity

Putting

As previously mentioned, we’ll be dealing with large Bermuda greens this week. Making putts will be a must, although the grouping of stats previously mentioned won’t lead me to prioritizing putting too heavily. A history of Bermuda grass putting is appreciated…

Key Stats

-          SG Putting: Bermuda grass

-          SG Short Game: Large greens

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

Around the green and putting seemed to have the most impact last year, which isn’t surprising considering it’s a birdie fest. Guys that didn’t approach well saved themselves with an elite around the green game. Everyone that drove it and approached well let themselves down with the putter.

It looks like Kirk won by getting everything up and down for birdie on the scoreable holes. Scottie/Collin would’ve won if their putters weren’t complete no shows, and Theegala may have won if he didn’t have an uncharacteristically bad tournament around the greens.

I don’t think we learn too much from last year. Drive it well (far preferred), hit good wedges, and get your birdies up and down on easy holes.

Additional Thoughts

I think course experience matters here. In this birdie sprint, you can’t have minor setbacks due to unfamiliarity with where to hit it. Uneven lies, elevation changes, and breezy conditions are factors that start to feel natural to those that have played here before. I also want to make sure I am escalating players who can get hot – as this event is surely a birdie fest between the best players in the world!

Key Stats

-          Birdie or Better: Easy scoring conditions

-          Birdie or Better: Going for the green

-          SG: The Plantation Course

Betting Card:

TBD – Update to come 12/31/24