AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: PGA Tour Betting Preview

Tournament Details

Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links (2 course rotation)

Par: 72

Yards: 6,897 yards

This week, we see our LAST course rotation of the season. Although this improved with the elevation of the event (previously 3 courses), we are still happy to see course rotation season go; It’s more difficult to handicap multiple courses, especially when only one provides historical strokes gained data.

Pebble Beach has become one of the most recognizable courses in the world thanks to its gorgeous coastline, elevation changes, and iconic bunkering. Looking at the historical strokes gained data, there isn’t much to leverage this week, in terms of creating a specific stat profile. The main defense of the course is its small, undulating greens, and the weather; if the wind is blowing then Pebble Beach becomes a bear.

Weather

The weather looks absolutely perfect this week. We’re looking at 60 degrees and sunny with variable winds all week. Although that will be a bummer for most viewers, it will certainly help to highlight who the best approach specialists are, as the small greens will still provide a challenge to the field. Unless we see a change in forecast, the scores will be LOW this week.

Off the Tee

The historical strokes gained data tells the story here: off the tee play does not matter this week! Driving distance and driving accuracy are equally as irrelevant, as the short course offers plenty of less than driver off the tee. Distance is ~15 yards less than a normal stop and accuracy is 11% more. This is due to generous fairways and forced layups that will see most of the field playing approach shots from the same spot. The calm conditions this week will make it easier to hit these wide fairways. The only argument for distance is that calm conditions will allow bombers to have shorter irons into par 5s. The par 5s are already short here so, while that may be true, I don’t think it’s much of a difference maker.

Key Stats

-          SG OTT: Less than driver

Approach

Approach play will be paramount this week! This is a shot-maker’s golf course where a well-thought out second shot will be the difference between a downhill, difficult putt, and an up-hill, makeable putt. I will look to prioritize approach play in any way I can this week. Almost all these greens slope back to front, meaning flag hunting can lead to difficult putts and, in some cases, 3-putts. Guys who play well here understand this and leave their approach shots under the hole. That strategy will punch your ticket to a Poa putting fest.

Unlike last week, players will be hitting a lot of wedge shots this week. 75-150 will be the distances to focus on. It’s hard to pin-point a 25-yard approach range because of the elevation changes. Someone may have a 150-yard approach shot but it can be much shorter than that with the adjusted yardage.

There are a few forced-layup par 4s, and four par 5s that lead to the 200+ approaches. With small greens, adding a bit of ARG play may be helpful to assist with the up and down birdies and pars. Overall, I want a wedge assassin this week.

Key Stats

-          SG APP: L36 rounds

-          SG APP: Small greens

-          SG APP: Coastal courses

-          75-150 Proximity

Around the Green

Around the green play tends to be easy at Pebble Beach. This is likely due to the ease of chipping off short and long grass around the greens. With that being said, players will be asked to get up and down for birdies on the par 5s, and for par on a few of the forced-layup par 4s. I do think ARG play will matter this week.

Another callout is the bunkering at Pebble Beach. The course has a LOT of sand, including bunkering around greens. It translates to one of the harder stops to get greenside bunker shots up and down. I’ll be bringing this into the model this week, as conditions are going to lead to low scores and I can’t have a guy that is struggling around the greens, especially out of the sand.

Key Stats

-          SG ARG: L36 rounds

-          Sand saves %

Putting

Putting is always the key to low scores, which we are going to get this week. With that being said, this tournament is more about putting from the right spots, than it is making a ton of putts. Approach play will punch your ticket to a putting fest, and familiarity on Poa will be a huge advantage over the course of 4 rounds. Almost all the greens at Pebble Beach slant back-to-front and getting out of position will lead to nervy second putts. 3-put avoidance is very difficult at Pebble Beach.

Key Stats

-          SGP: Poa

-          3-putt avoidance: Hard greens

Learnings from Last Year’s Top 5

Last year’s T5 tells us a familiar story if you’ve been watching PGA Tour golf so far this year. A putting fest leads to variability. Pavon, Hubbard, and Detry rounding out a T5 at a signature event – not exactly what the PGA Tour has in mind! Aside from putting well, you either need to approach at a high clip (see the T10 from last year), or chip it very well around the greens. Both of those methods lead to putting from the correct spots, which leads to birdie chances.

Additional Thoughts

OTT play can come into play on the par 5s. Longer hitters give themselves shorter shots into these small greens. I prefer to leave the OTT play out of it and, instead, focus on par 5 scoring; I want a guy that makes birdie on par 5s at a high clip. Most of the top-tier approach players from last year lost the tournament around the green, meaning when they didn’t gain strokes on approach, their chipping let them down.

If you want to de-prioritize putting, you need an approach specialist with a savvy around the green game. If you want to prioritize putting, you’ll want a competent ball striker. Either way, this event brings some variability to it based on the projected low scores and need to make a lot of 10-12’ putts.

Key Stats

-          SG: Pebble Beach

-          Par 5 BoB

-          SG TTG: Comp Courses